宇航计测技术

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基于灰色模型和ARIMA模型的钟差预测

宋会杰1，2;侯娟1，2   

  1. 1、中国科学院国家授时中心，西安 710600；
    2、中国科学院时间频率基准重点实验室，西安 710600
  • 出版日期:2012-02-15 发布日期:2012-02-15
  • 作者简介:宋会杰（1981-），男，助理工程师，主要研究方向：数据处理与算法。

A Clock Errors Prediction Model based on Grey Model and ARIMA Model

SONG Hui-jie1，2;HOU Juan1，2   

  1. 1、National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Science, Xi’an 710600;
    2、Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Primary Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710600
  • Online:2012-02-15 Published:2012-02-15

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摘要： 由于多种因素的影响，原子钟运行情况十分复杂，为了有效地进行钟差预报和更好的反应原子钟的特性，提出一种基于灰色模型和ARIMA模型的组合模型来实现钟差的预报，并给出了灰色模型和ARIMA模型进行原子钟钟差预报的基本思想和预报模型。利用组合模型更精确地把握钟差序列复杂细致的变化规律，从而更好的逼近钟差序列。为了验证该组合模型的可行性和有效性，利用原子钟钟差数据进行钟差预报分析，结果显示该模型具有较好的预报精度。

关键词: 灰色模型, ARIMA, 钟差预报

Abstract: Because of the influence of many factors, the running of an atomic clock is very complex. The atomic clock has high frequency, is very sensitive and extremely easy to be influenced by the outside world and its own factors. So it is very difficult to master its complicated and detailed law of change. With the above characters, a combination model method for clock errors prediction based on grey model and ARIMA model is proposed. The basic ideas, prediction models based on grey model and ARIMA model are discussed, respectively. Compared with the grey system model and ARIMA model, a careful precision analysis of combination model prediction is made to verify the feasibility and validity of this proposed method by using the performance parameters of atomic clocks. The simulation results show that the prediction precision of this combination model is much better.

Key words: Grey model, ARIMA, Clock errors prediction

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