JOURNAL OF ASTRONAUTIC METROLOGY AND MEASUREMENT ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 26-29.doi: 10.12060/j.issn.1000-7202.2012.01.07

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A Clock Errors Prediction Model based on Grey Model and ARIMA Model

SONG Hui-jie1,2;HOU Juan1,2   

  1. 1、National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Science, Xi’an 710600;
    2、Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Primary Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710600
  • Online:2012-02-15 Published:2012-02-15

Abstract: Because of the influence of many factors, the running of an atomic clock is very complex. The atomic clock has high frequency, is very sensitive and extremely easy to be influenced by the outside world and its own factors. So it is very difficult to master its complicated and detailed law of change. With the above characters, a combination model method for clock errors prediction based on grey model and ARIMA model is proposed. The basic ideas, prediction models based on grey model and ARIMA model are discussed, respectively. Compared with the grey system model and ARIMA model, a careful precision analysis of combination model prediction is made to verify the feasibility and validity of this proposed method by using the performance parameters of atomic clocks. The simulation results show that the prediction precision of this combination model is much better.

Key words: Grey model, ARIMA, Clock errors prediction